What to Do in 2024: We Need to Look Ahead Now
Donald Trump is a once in a generation candidate. It seems that both parties get one. Every decade or so, one of the parties get a candidate who excites the base, wakes up voters, and crosses party lines. There is no “next” Donald Trump, and everyone knows this.
The last twenty years have taught us political lifers and dull personalities won't be president. Between John McCain, Mitt Romney, and Hillary Clinton, very little charisma existed. Their experiences as Senators paled when facing Obama's and Trump's big personalities.
Barack Obama was very inexperienced in 2008, having served less than four years as a Senator. He won the presidency that year on big promises, big slogans, and a simple campaign idea. Though Trump ran on opposing policies, his plan was similar. He had no governmental experience. He had a big crowd-pleasing slogan. He made promises that most didn’t believe he could live up to. Finally, Donald Trump ran on the premise that America can still be great, another big idea.
Though polls shows that Joe Biden can win, his personality is most like John McCain or John Kerry. He doesn't have the charm or charisma of Obama or Trump. Historical patterns far favor a Donald Trump reelection. No matter who wins in 2020, Republicans need to look hard at 2024.
The open primary system means that no party can control the nomination process. But if Donald Trump wins in 2020, he should try to create a legacy. If he put all his weight behind one candidate, it would transfer his personal base behind that person. That would be a major advantage. Trump is also a massive money-raiser, so he could bring that advantage to his chosen heir, as well.
As I said before, having connections and government experience simply isn’t enough. Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton, Barack Obama, and Donald Trump’s examples teach us that personality and charisma count. Republicans need a candidate that wants to communicate directly to the people. Otherwise, they'll lose.
Is there another Donald Trump? No. Can we simulate that personal charisma and charm? Yes. Is there an experienced candidate that can co-opt Democrats’ natural voting base? Yes, and they come together in one unique candidate.
Former South Carolina Governor and UN Ambassador Nikki Haley fills a lot of the party's needs.
Crossover Appeal:
Haley is a woman, an ethnic-minority, and the daughter of Indian immigrants. This fulfills roles that Democrats have heretofore owned. This appeal will invite non-traditional voters to look at her, and the Republican party as a whole. She doesn’t need to appeal to the college-aged radicals or the single mothers. Married suburban woman are a key demographic, and Haley can make a strong appeal to those women.
Personal Appeal:
Over and over again, both as SC Governor and UN Ambassador, she stood up to the mainstream media. Again and again, she has proven she can appeal to the Republican base. She has a very high name recognition and personal appeal with Republicans. Beyond this, she lack the abrasive personality that plagues Donald Trump. She instead has a reassuring and pleasing personality. A trait she shares with the president is a sense of purpose that will appeal to Americans. She's likable and knows how to spread the conservative message. She's so good at it, that no one can do that better, save perhaps for the president himself.
Government Experience:
Haley has both domestic and foreign experience. She has experience in executive and diplomatic roles. Thus, no one will be able to claim she lacks the seasoning to actually be president. Her experience as Ambassador to the UN also makes her a prime candidate for a good cabinet position. If Trump can give up some of the spotlight, making her Secretary of State would give her even more prestige. Even something as simple as Secretary of Commerce would be a feather in her cap that few other president candidates could claim. If Donald Trump can check his own ego and let Nikki Haley have a lot of the spotlight in 2023-24, she could be the natural standard-bearer for the party. All those checkboxes would be filled.
Charm and Charisma:
Nikki Haley can sway people’s views because she speaks with conviction and charisma. Consider this recent Republican National Convention speech, where she reminded us that that America is still a great nation. In this interview (), she makes the appeal that her leadership is effective and is able to stand up to the gotcha questions thrown at her. Here is a video where she makes jokes at Donald Trump’s and Elizabeth Warren’s expense. She is also a stylistic departure from Donald Trump. Haley is understated and succinct when the president is bombastic and prolix. Haley speaks from her own experience while Donald Trump paints a picture of what could be. Haley leads by example when Donald Trump asks for support directly. If she can get Donald Trump’s base, she doesn’t need to be Donald Trump. She only needs to have a wide appeal and win states like Pennsylvania, Florida, and Michigan.
Republicans will face a crossroads in 2024 regardless of the outcome in 2020. This future stares heavily at us, though almost everyone is focused on November. Our candidates must be those who are as much style as substance in the internet age. I do not call for style over substance, nor do I wish to ignore political experience in a candidate. But the once in a generation president will be used up. Haley fulfills the role better than any one else in 2024.
Donald Trump is not coming back in 2024: he cannot. We need a candidate who can embody style along with substance. Among the younger voices within conservatism, no one fills that role like Nikki Haley. Republicans should be preparing now for her campaign. If Democrats nominated Hillary Clinton in 2016 and Joe Biden in 2020, how much worse will the 2024 candidate be? I’m voting for Donald Trump, so I’m looking at who can be the best succeed him down the road: Nikki Haley 2024.
